The climate crisis often appears as an immense and intricate challenge, leaving many of us overwhelmed and filled with anxiety. In this blog post, our goal is to alleviate some of this anxiety and replace it with a profound sense of hope and determination to take action for the climate.
Our approach involves delving into the primary contributor to climate change and then providing a clearer understanding of the steps necessary to address this issue; the transition to renewable energy sources. We’ll start with a factual foundation and conclude with illustrative examples.
As we crafted this post, we embarked on a personal journey that led us to a renewed sense of optimism. This emotional journey parallels that of embarking on a new project in an unfamiliar domain outside one’s comfort zone. Initially, it may seem insurmountable, but with the acquisition of knowledge and skills, it gradually becomes more achievable. With the acquisition of even a modest amount of additional knowledge, we are now firmly convinced that, as a united force, we can successfully achieve the monumental endeavor of transitioning to 100% renewable energy within a reasonable timeframe.
Our sincere hope is that this newfound sense of optimism and actionable insights will inspire you to join the journey towards a more sustainable future. Together, we can make a significant difference.
Why should we focus on the energy transition?
Virtually all research points to the same conclusion: we must shift from nonrenewable energy sources to renewable ones. Let’s explore some of the research and evidence supporting this critical necessity.
The chart below, sourced from the “Global Footprint Network,” visually depicts the number of hectares required to maintain an ecologically sustainable way of life.
Upon examining this chart, it becomes evident that the largest contributor to our required land is “carbon.” Let’s delve a bit deeper into the carbon component. The calculation of “carbon” hectares is derived from our CO2 emissions, divided by the Earth’s current per-hectare capacity to ecologically sustainably absorb CO2.[2] This absorption capacity varies based on the distribution of forest, built-up land, grazing land, and so on. [3]
In essence, the number of “Carbon” hectares can be reduced either by altering land use or by reducing our emissions. [2] Further insights from the “Open Data Platform” website indicate that the land required to offset our 2019 CO2 emissions amounts to roughly 12.3 billion hectares, roughly 60% of the total land necessary for sustainable living [1]. The organization Earth Overshoot Day highlights that our way of living in 2019 demanded the equivalent of 1.7 Earths to absorb our CO2 emissions – there’s hardly room for anything else [4].
The data on “Global Footprint Network” aligns seamlessly with the United Nations’ stance on the primary contributor to climate change, which unequivocally identifies fossil fuels as the leading cause of global climate change. [5]
It’s abundantly clear that a collective effort is urgently needed to address our reliance on fossil fuels. But what, you might ask, are these fossil fuels predominantly used for? The answer: energy in its various forms! In the upcoming section, we will explore the current status of energy consumption and its sources. Subsequently, in the following section, we will delve into research findings regarding the viability of shifting to 100% renewable energy.
World’s Energy Consumption and Sources - Today
Here are two charts from Our World in Data. The first illustrates our historical energy consumption, while the second depicts our historical CO2 emissions. Combining these charts underscores the significant CO2 emissions resulting from our reliance on nonrenewable energy sources. This aligns with our prior discussion in the preceding section regarding the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions.
Furthermore, it’s noteworthy that approximately 80% of global primary energy consumption in 2022 is attributed to nonrenewable energy sources. If we attribute all the CO2 emissions in the second chart (from 2021) to the nonrenewable energy consumption in the first chart, it becomes evident that transitioning all energy consumption to renewable sources will eliminate approximately 37 billion tons of CO2 emissions. In the upcoming section, we will explore the feasibility of making a complete transition to 100% renewable energy.
World’s Energy Consumption and Sources - 100% renewable
This chapter seeks to address the following question: “Is a complete transition to renewable energy sources feasible?”
Scientists in the United States have researched the prospects of shifting entirely to 100% renewable energy sources. Their findings affirm that such a transition is indeed possible, although they also acknowledge the presence of challenges. The study’s conclusion emphasizes that the transition can be accomplished using current technology and infrastructure, harnessing energy sources such as wind, water, and solar power. Additionally, the study indicates that there are ample resources available to facilitate this transition. Further, upon successful completion of the transition, it is estimated that energy consumption will decrease by approximately 40%, with the predominant contributor to this reduction being the shift to electricity. [8]
To provide a concrete example of the transition to 100% renewable energy, we present a hypothetical scenario involving solar panels below.
Example – Making the transition more tangible
The aim of this example is to provide a more concrete understanding of the transition to 100% renewable energy. It is not intended to advocate for a solution exclusively reliant on 100% solar panels, as there are numerous viable renewable energy alternatives, with more in development.
The example is divided into two sub-questions:
- What amount of solar panel area is required to generate the same quantity of energy as the global nonrenewable energy consumption in 2022, assuming the solar panels are placed in locations with favorable but not optimal conditions?
- How much would the solar panels cost?
1. What amount of solar panel area is required to generate the same quantity of energy as the global nonrenewable energy consumption in 2022, assuming the solar panels are placed in locations with favorable but not optimal conditions?
Our calculation below indicates that 383,561 km2, or 0.26% of Earth’s land area, needs to be covered by solar panels. This is the same size as Iraq or Sweden.
When the solar panel area is visualized on a per person basis and compared to World’s surface area per person, which is about 1.86 hectares, it appears as shown in the following image.
Assumptions
Assumption 1: Every installed kW generates 5 kWh per day is assumed since the solar panels are assumed to be placed in very good but not optimal locations. [9]
Assumption 2: A solar panel produces between 150 to 200 W/m2. We will use 175 W/m2 since it’s the middle.[10]
Data
x = the approximate energy production from nonrenewable energy sources 2022 = 140,000 TWh [6]
d = Earth’s land = 148,940,000 km2 [11]
Calculations
Assuming a daily production of 5 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per installed kilowatt (kW), we can calculate the required installed kW for our nonrenewable energy consumption as follows:
installed kW = nonrenewable energy consumption per year / (daily production per installed kW × days in a year)
installed kW = 140,000 TWh / (5 x 365) = 140,000,000,000,000 kWh / 1,825 = 76,712,328,800 kW
A = The area needed for 76,712,328,800 kW solar panels = installed kW / p = 76,712,328,800 kW / 200 W/m2 = CA 383,562,000,000 m2 = CA 383 562 km2
Percent of earth’s land: A / d = 383,562 km2 / 148,940,000 km2 = CA 0.0026 = 0.26%
2. How much would the solar panels cost?
Our calculations below show that 65.7 trillion US dollars, or approximately 65% of the world’s GDP 2022, needs to be spent to cover 0.26% of Earth’s land with solar panels. Infrastructure needed not included.
The calculations that led to the aforementioned answer are provided below.
Data
Average cost per installed kW 2021 in the world: 857 US dollars [12]
World GDP was 100.56 trillion US dollars 2022 [13]
Calculations
US dollar for all solar panels = 76,712,328,800 kW * 857 US dollars = 65,742,465,781 600 US dollars = about 65.7 trillion US dollars.
In other words, 65.7/100.6 = about 65% of 2022 GDP is needed.
Conclusion
The primary culprit behind climate change is the emission of greenhouse gasses, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In this blog post, we’ve highlighted that it’s entirely feasible to eliminate CO2 emissions stemming from our energy sources through a transition to renewable energy sources. This transition can be achieved using today’s technology. Hence, it is not primarily a matter of technological enhancements; fundamentally, it is an issue rooted in human behavior.
We hope that through this blog post, we’ve been able to alleviate some climate anxiety and ignite a sense of inspiration, motivating you to take action.
References
[1] Global Footprint Network. Analyze by land type. Open Data Platform (footprintnetwork.org) (2023-10-09)
[2] Global Footprint Network. Climate Change. Climate Change & the Carbon Footprint – Global Footprint Network (2023-10-04)
[3] Global Footprint Network. How Ecological Footprint accounting helps us recognize that engaging in meaningful climate action is critical for our own success. Climate change and the Ecological Footprint and carbon footprint (footprintnetwork.org) (2023-10-06)
[4] Earth Overshoot Day. Past Earth Overshoot Days. Past Earth Overshoot Days – #MoveTheDate of Earth Overshoot Day (2023-10-09)
[5] United Nations. Cause and Effects of Climate Change. Causes and Effects of Climate Change | United Nations. (2023-10-09)
[6] Our World In Data. Energy Production and Consumption. Energy Production and Consumption – Our World in Data. (2023-10-09)
[7] Our World In Data. CO2 emissions by fuel. CO2 emissions by fuel – Our World in Data. (2023-10-09)
[8] Stanford. Stanford engineers develop state-by-state plan to convert U.S. to 100% clean, renewable energy by 2050.Stanford engineers develop state-by-state plan to convert U.S. to clean, renewable energy. (2023-10-09)
[9] World Bank Group. Solar Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country. Solar Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country (worldbank.org) (2023-10-02)
[10] Tesla. Solar Panels Specs. Solar Panels | Tesla (2023-10-09)
[11] Wikipedia. Earth. Earth – Wikipedia. (2023-10-09)
[12] Statista. Average installed cost for solar photovoltaics worldwide from 2010 to 2021. Solar PV installation cost worldwide 2021 | Statista. (2023-10-09)
[13] The World Bank. GDP (current US$). GDP (current US$) | Data (worldbank.org). (2023-10-09)